Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Metz is likely to win this match with a probability of 37.54%. A win for Toulouse has a probability of 29.78%, while a draw has a probability of 32.67%. The most likely scoreline for a Metz win is 1-0, with a probability of 15.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 7.8% and 2-1 with a probability of 6.5%. The most probable Toulouse win is 0-1 with a probability of 13.65%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 16.39%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Metz’s win or not lose, with bookmakers offering average odds of 3.15, much higher than the 2.66 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Metz | Toulouse | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.98 | 0.83 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 37.54% | 32.67% | 29.78% |
| Imp Odds | 2.66 | 3.06 | 3.36 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 16.39% | 6.10 |
| 1.5 | 46.03% | 2.17 |
| 2.5 | 72.84% | 1.37 |
| 3.5 | 88.99% | 1.12 |
| 4.5 | 96.30% | 1.04 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 83.61% | 1.20 |
| 1.5 | 53.97% | 1.85 |
| 2.5 | 27.16% | 3.68 |
| 3.5 | 11.01% | 9.09 |
| 4.5 | 3.70% | 27.02 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 6.10 | 16.39% |
| 0-1 | 7.32 | 13.65% |
| 0-2 | 17.58 | 5.69% |
| 0-3 | 63.33 | 1.58% |
| 1-0 | 6.25 | 15.99% |
| 1-1 | 7.51 | 13.32% |
| 1-2 | 18.03 | 5.55% |
| 1-3 | 64.93 | 1.54% |
| 2-0 | 12.82 | 7.80% |
| 2-1 | 15.40 | 6.50% |
| 2-2 | 36.96 | 2.71% |
| 2-3 | 133.13 | 0.75% |
| 3-0 | 39.44 | 2.54% |
| 3-1 | 47.35 | 2.11% |
| 3-2 | 113.69 | 0.88% |
| 3-3 | 409.46 | 0.24% |
| Any Other Home Win | 57.59 | 1.74% |
| Any Other Away Win | 158.16 | 0.63% |
| Any Other Draw | 7,803.77 | 0.01% |
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Metz | Toulouse | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.94 | 0.60 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 42.07% | 35.39% | 22.54% |
| Imp Odds | 2.38 | 2.83 | 4.44 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 21.49% | 4.65 |
| 1.5 | 54.54% | 1.83 |
| 2.5 | 79.94% | 1.25 |
| 3.5 | 92.96% | 1.08 |
| 4.5 | 97.96% | 1.02 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 78.51% | 1.27 |
| 1.5 | 45.46% | 2.20 |
| 2.5 | 20.06% | 4.99 |
| 3.5 | 7.04% | 14.20 |
| 4.5 | 2.04% | 49.05 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 21.49% | 4.65 |
| 0-1 | 12.89% | 7.76 |
| 0-2 | 3.86% | 25.88 |
| 0-3 | 0.77% | 129.52 |
| 1-0 | 20.16% | 4.96 |
| 1-1 | 12.09% | 8.27 |
| 1-2 | 3.62% | 27.60 |
| 1-3 | 0.72% | 138.11 |
| 2-0 | 9.45% | 10.58 |
| 2-1 | 5.67% | 17.65 |
| 2-2 | 1.70% | 58.86 |
| 2-3 | 0.34% | 294.54 |
| 3-0 | 2.95% | 33.84 |
| 3-1 | 1.77% | 56.45 |
| 3-2 | 0.53% | 188.30 |
| 3-3 | 0.11% | 942.21 |
| Any Other Home Win | 1.54% | 65.08 |
| Any Other Away Win | 0.20% | 502.13 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.00% | 26,213.15 |