Nantes vs PSG

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that PSG is likely to win this match with a probability of 73.66%. A win for Nantes has a probability of 11.52%, while a draw has a probability of 11.92%. The most likely scoreline for a PSG win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 36.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-3 with a probability of 6.98% and 1-2 with a probability of 5.72%. The most probable Nantes win is “Any Other Home Win” with a probability of 3.89%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 2-2 with a probability of 4.35%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on PSG to win. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.5, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.27 (based on goal statistics) and 1.36 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making PSG a potentially valuable bet.

This match also offers an opportunity for betting on total goals over 2.5, given that the average projected goals calculated by our model stand at 3.26 (based on goal statistics) and 5.18 (based on XG).

The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.