Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Arsenal is likely to win this match with a probability of 59.85%. A win for Brighton has a probability of 18%, while a draw has a probability of 22.13%. The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 with a probability of 11.43% and 2-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The most probable Brighton win is 0-1 with a probability of 5.6%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 10.52%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By Goals
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Arsenal | Brighton | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.88 | 0.92 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 59.85% | 22.13% | 18.00% |
| Imp Odds | 1.67 | 4.52 | 5.56 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 6.08% | 16.45 |
| 1.5 | 23.11% | 4.33 |
| 2.5 | 46.94% | 2.13 |
| 3.5 | 69.19% | 1.45 |
| 4.5 | 84.77% | 1.18 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 93.92% | 1.06 |
| 1.5 | 76.89% | 1.30 |
| 2.5 | 53.06% | 1.88 |
| 3.5 | 30.81% | 3.25 |
| 4.5 | 15.23% | 6.56 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 16.45 | 6.08% |
| 0-1 | 17.85 | 5.60% |
| 0-2 | 38.77 | 2.58% |
| 0-3 | 126.28 | 0.79% |
| 1-0 | 8.75 | 11.43% |
| 1-1 | 9.50 | 10.52% |
| 1-2 | 20.63 | 4.85% |
| 1-3 | 67.20 | 1.49% |
| 2-0 | 9.32 | 10.73% |
| 2-1 | 10.11 | 9.89% |
| 2-2 | 21.96 | 4.55% |
| 2-3 | 71.53 | 1.40% |
| 3-0 | 14.87 | 6.72% |
| 3-1 | 16.15 | 6.19% |
| 3-2 | 35.07 | 2.85% |
| 3-3 | 114.21 | 0.88% |
| Any Other Home Win | 8.31 | 12.03% |
| Any Other Away Win | 92.98 | 1.08% |
| Any Other Draw | 984.37 | 0.10% |
By Goals
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Arsenal | Brighton | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 3.31 | 1.53 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 71.08% | 13.87% | 14.34% |
| Imp Odds | 1.41 | 7.21 | 6.98 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 0.79% | 126.40 |
| 1.5 | 4.62% | 21.65 |
| 2.5 | 13.88% | 7.20 |
| 3.5 | 28.83% | 3.47 |
| 4.5 | 46.91% | 2.13 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 99.21% | 1.01 |
| 1.5 | 95.38% | 1.05 |
| 2.5 | 86.12% | 1.16 |
| 3.5 | 71.17% | 1.41 |
| 4.5 | 53.09% | 1.88 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 0.79% | 126.40 |
| 0-1 | 1.21% | 82.42 |
| 0-2 | 0.93% | 107.48 |
| 0-3 | 0.48% | 210.24 |
| 1-0 | 2.62% | 38.24 |
| 1-1 | 4.01% | 24.93 |
| 1-2 | 3.08% | 32.51 |
| 1-3 | 1.57% | 63.60 |
| 2-0 | 4.32% | 23.13 |
| 2-1 | 6.63% | 15.08 |
| 2-2 | 5.08% | 19.67 |
| 2-3 | 2.60% | 38.48 |
| 3-0 | 4.76% | 20.99 |
| 3-1 | 7.31% | 13.69 |
| 3-2 | 5.60% | 17.85 |
| 3-3 | 2.86% | 34.92 |
| Any Other Home Win | 39.84% | 2.51 |
| Any Other Away Win | 4.23% | 23.66 |
| Any Other Draw | 1.12% | 89.26 |