Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Brentford is likely to win this match with a probability of 79.46%. A win for Nottingham Forest has a probability of 8%, while a draw has a probability of 12.07%. The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 36.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3–0 with a probability of 8.77% and 2-0 with a probability of 8.5%. The most probable Nottingham Forest win is 1-2 with a probability of 2.4%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 5.14%.
This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Brentford to win. Bookmakers offer average odds of 2.3, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.16 (based on goal statistics) and 1.26 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may overvalue the opponent, making Aston Villa a potentially valuable bet.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Brentford | Nottingham Forest | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 3.10 | 0.94 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 79.46% | 12.07% | 8.00% |
| Imp Odds | 1.26 | 8.28 | 12.50 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.77% | 56.44 |
| 1.5 | 8.92% | 11.21 |
| 2.5 | 23.33% | 4.29 |
| 3.5 | 42.70% | 2.34 |
| 4.5 | 62.24% | 1.61 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.23% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 91.08% | 1.10 |
| 2.5 | 76.67% | 1.30 |
| 3.5 | 57.30% | 1.75 |
| 4.5 | 37.76% | 2.65 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 56.44 | 1.77% |
| 0-1 | 60.30 | 1.66% |
| 0-2 | 128.86 | 0.78% |
| 0-3 | 413.04 | 0.24% |
| 1-0 | 18.22 | 5.49% |
| 1-1 | 19.47 | 5.14% |
| 1-2 | 41.60 | 2.40% |
| 1-3 | 133.36 | 0.75% |
| 2-0 | 11.77 | 8.50% |
| 2-1 | 12.57 | 7.95% |
| 2-2 | 26.87 | 3.72% |
| 2-3 | 86.11 | 1.16% |
| 3-0 | 11.40 | 8.77% |
| 3-1 | 12.18 | 8.21% |
| 3-2 | 26.02 | 3.84% |
| 3-3 | 83.41 | 1.20% |
| Any Other Home Win | 2.73 | 36.69% |
| Any Other Away Win | 106.26 | 0.94% |
| Any Other Draw | 408.92 | 0.24% |
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Brentford | Nottingham Forest | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 4.02 | 0.93 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 86.50% | 7.15% | 4.15% |
| Imp Odds | 1.16 | 13.99 | 24.07 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 0.71% | 141.38 |
| 1.5 | 4.21% | 23.76 |
| 2.5 | 12.88% | 7.76 |
| 3.5 | 27.19% | 3.68 |
| 4.5 | 44.91% | 2.23 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 99.29% | 1.01 |
| 1.5 | 95.79% | 1.04 |
| 2.5 | 87.12% | 1.15 |
| 3.5 | 72.81% | 1.37 |
| 4.5 | 55.09% | 1.82 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 0.71% | 141.38 |
| 0-1 | 0.66% | 151.77 |
| 0-2 | 0.31% | 325.83 |
| 0-3 | 0.10% | 1,049.31 |
| 1-0 | 2.84% | 35.17 |
| 1-1 | 2.65% | 37.75 |
| 1-2 | 1.23% | 81.05 |
| 1-3 | 0.38% | 261.03 |
| 2-0 | 5.71% | 17.50 |
| 2-1 | 5.32% | 18.78 |
| 2-2 | 2.48% | 40.33 |
| 2-3 | 0.77% | 129.87 |
| 3-0 | 7.66% | 13.06 |
| 3-1 | 7.13% | 14.02 |
| 3-2 | 3.32% | 30.10 |
| 3-3 | 1.03% | 96.92 |
| Any Other Home Win | 54.50% | 1.83 |
| Any Other Away Win | 0.68% | 146.93 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.28% | 354.96 |