Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Aston Villa is likely to win this match with a probability of 58.45%. A win for Manchester City has a probability of 20.21%, while a draw has a probability of 21.31%. The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 14.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 9.91% and 2-0 with a probability of 9.03%. The most probable Manchester City win is 1-2 with a probability of 5.41%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 9.86%.
This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Aston Villa to win. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 3.4, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.71 (based on goal statistics) and 1.33 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may overvalue the opponent, making Aston Villa a potentially valuable bet.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.01 | 1.10 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 58.45% | 21.31% | 20.21% |
| Imp Odds | 1.71 | 4.69 | 4.95 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.47% | 22.37 |
| 1.5 | 18.36% | 5.45 |
| 2.5 | 39.95% | 2.50 |
| 3.5 | 62.31% | 1.60 |
| 4.5 | 79.68% | 1.25 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 95.53% | 1.05 |
| 1.5 | 81.64% | 1.22 |
| 2.5 | 60.05% | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 37.69% | 2.65 |
| 4.5 | 20.32% | 4.92 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 4.47% | 22.37 |
| 0-1 | 4.91% | 20.38 |
| 0-2 | 2.69% | 37.12 |
| 0-3 | 0.99% | 101.43 |
| 1-0 | 8.98% | 11.13 |
| 1-1 | 9.86% | 10.14 |
| 1-2 | 5.41% | 18.47 |
| 1-3 | 1.98% | 50.47 |
| 2-0 | 9.03% | 11.08 |
| 2-1 | 9.91% | 10.09 |
| 2-2 | 5.44% | 18.38 |
| 2-3 | 1.99% | 50.22 |
| 3-0 | 6.05% | 16.53 |
| 3-1 | 6.64% | 15.06 |
| 3-2 | 3.65% | 27.43 |
| 3-3 | 1.33% | 74.95 |
| Any Other Home Win | 14.19% | 7.05 |
| Any Other Away Win | 1.90% | 52.68 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.20% | 496.77 |
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.64 | 0.87 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 74.93% | 14.97% | 9.93% |
| Imp Odds | 1.33 | 6.68 | 10.07 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.02% | 33.13 |
| 1.5 | 13.58% | 7.36 |
| 2.5 | 32.08% | 3.12 |
| 3.5 | 53.66% | 1.86 |
| 4.5 | 72.54% | 1.38 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.98% | 1.03 |
| 1.5 | 86.42% | 1.16 |
| 2.5 | 67.92% | 1.47 |
| 3.5 | 46.34% | 2.16 |
| 4.5 | 27.46% | 3.64 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 33.13 | 3.02% |
| 0-1 | 38.28 | 2.61% |
| 0-2 | 88.48 | 1.13% |
| 0-3 | 306.76 | 0.33% |
| 1-0 | 12.57 | 7.95% |
| 1-1 | 14.53 | 6.88% |
| 1-2 | 33.58 | 2.98% |
| 1-3 | 116.41 | 0.86% |
| 2-0 | 9.54 | 10.48% |
| 2-1 | 11.03 | 9.07% |
| 2-2 | 25.49 | 3.92% |
| 2-3 | 88.36 | 1.13% |
| 3-0 | 10.86 | 9.20% |
| 3-1 | 12.55 | 7.97% |
| 3-2 | 29.02 | 3.45% |
| 3-3 | 100.60 | 0.99% |
| Any Other Home Win | 3.73 | 26.82% |
| Any Other Away Win | 123.98 | 0.81% |
| Any Other Draw | 643.32 | 0.16% |