Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Brighton is likely to win this match with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Chelsea has a probability of 38.81%, while a draw has a probability of 20.5%. The most likely scoreline for a Brighton win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scoreline for that outcome is 1-2 with a probability of 7.28%. The most probable Chelsea win is “Any Other Home Win” with a probability of 12.81%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 2-2 with a probability of 7.32%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Brighton’s win (no lose), with bookmakers offering average odds of 4.6, much higher than the 2.47 calculated by our model. Furthermore, the Chelsea vs Brighton match is highly likely to have over 2.5 and even over 3.5 goals.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Chelsea | Brighton | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.01 | 2.06 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 38.81% | 20.50% | 40.46% |
| Imp Odds | 2.58 | 4.88 | 2.47 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.71% | 58.47 |
| 1.5 | 8.67% | 11.54 |
| 2.5 | 22.82% | 4.38 |
| 3.5 | 42.02% | 2.38 |
| 4.5 | 61.55% | 1.62 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.29% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 91.33% | 1.09 |
| 2.5 | 77.18% | 1.30 |
| 3.5 | 57.98% | 1.72 |
| 4.5 | 38.45% | 2.60 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 58.47 | 1.71% |
| 0-1 | 28.41 | 3.52% |
| 0-2 | 27.61 | 3.62% |
| 0-3 | 40.25 | 2.48% |
| 1-0 | 29.08 | 3.44% |
| 1-1 | 14.13 | 7.08% |
| 1-2 | 13.73 | 7.28% |
| 1-3 | 20.02 | 5.00% |
| 2-0 | 28.93 | 3.46% |
| 2-1 | 14.06 | 7.11% |
| 2-2 | 13.66 | 7.32% |
| 2-3 | 19.91 | 5.02% |
| 3-0 | 43.17 | 2.32% |
| 3-1 | 20.98 | 4.77% |
| 3-2 | 20.39 | 4.91% |
| 3-3 | 29.72 | 3.37% |
| Any Other Home Win | 7.80 | 12.81% |
| Any Other Away Win | 8.58 | 11.65% |
| Any Other Draw | 96.87 | 1.03% |