Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that a draw is the most possible match result, with a probability of 60.12%. A win for Burnley has a probability of 23.29%, while a win for Sheffield United has a probability of 16.59%. The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win is 1-0, with a probability of 18.78%. The next most likely scoreline for that outcome is 2-0 with a probability of 3.19%. The most probable Sheffield United win is 0-1 with a probability of 13.99%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 55.26%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on a draw, with bookmakers offering average odds of 3.85, much higher than the 1.66 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Burnley | Sheffield United | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
0.34 | 0.25 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 23.29% | 60.12% | 16.59% |
Imp Odds | 4.29 | 1.66 | 6.03 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 55.26% | 1.81 |
1.5 | 88.04% | 1.14 |
2.5 | 97.76% | 1.02 |
3.5 | 99.68% | 1.00 |
4.5 | 99.96% | 1.00 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 44.74% | 2.24 |
1.5 | 11.96% | 8.36 |
2.5 | 2.24% | 44.58 |
3.5 | 0.32% | 310.31 |
4.5 | 0.04% | 2,671.79 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 1.81 | 55.26% |
0-1 | 7.15 | 13.99% |
0-2 | 56.47 | 1.77% |
0-3 | 669.23 | 0.15% |
1-0 | 5.32 | 18.78% |
1-1 | 21.03 | 4.76% |
1-2 | 166.14 | 0.60% |
1-3 | 1,968.92 | 0.05% |
2-0 | 31.33 | 3.19% |
2-1 | 123.74 | 0.81% |
2-2 | 977.61 | 0.10% |
2-3 | 11,585.40 | 0.01% |
3-0 | 276.48 | 0.36% |
3-1 | 1,092.17 | 0.09% |
3-2 | 8,628.64 | 0.01% |
3-3 | 102,255.24 | 0.00% |
Any Other Home Win | 2,356.63 | 0.04% |
Any Other Away Win | 24,846.11 | 0.00% |
Any Other Draw | 18,948,953.52 | 0.00% |