Luton vs Manchester United

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Manchester United is likely to win this match with a probability of 45.72%. A win for Luton has a probability of 27.76%, while a draw has a probability of 26.41%. The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win is 0-1, with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 9.02% and 0-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The most probable Luton win is 1-0 with a probability of 8.7%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.53%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Luton not to lose the match. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 3.75 for Luton win, higher than our model’s predictions of 3.6 (based on goal statistics) and 2.57 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Luton a risky, but potentially valuable underdog bet.

The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.