Napoli vs Genoa

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Napoli is likely to win this match with a probability of 55.28%. A win for Genoa has a probability of 20.4%, while a draw has a probability of 24.31%. The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win is 1-0, with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 10.59% and 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The most probable Genoa win is 0-1 with a probability of 6.91%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 11.53%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Genoa not to lose the match. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 6 for Genoa to win, higher than our model’s predictions of 3.14 (based on goal statistics) and 4.9 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Genoa a risky, but potentially valuable underdog bet.

The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.