Manchester City vs Arsenal

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Arsenal is likely to win this match with a probability of 38.38%. A win for Manchester City has a probability of 33.83%, while a draw has a probability of 27.75%. The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal win is 0-1, with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scoreline for that outcome is 1-2 with a probability of 8.1%. The most probable Manchester City win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 13.08%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Arsenal not to lose the match. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 4.2 for Arsenal win, higher than our model’s predictions of 2.61 (based on goal statistics) and 2.47 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Arsenal a risky, but potentially valuable underdog bet.

The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.