Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Manchester City is likely to win this match with a probability of 64.28%. A win for Brentford has a probability of 13.57%, while a draw has a probability of 22.14%. The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win is 1-0, with a probability of 14.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 13.5% and “Any Other Home Win” with a probability of 10.96%. The most probable Brentford win is 0-1 with a probability of 5.66%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 10.24%.
This match also offers an opportunity for betting on total goals under 3.5, given that the average projected goals calculated by our model stand at 2.5 (based on XG)., as bookmakers are offering average odds of 2 for total goals under 3.5, which is higher than the 1.32 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Manchester City | Brentford | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.81 | 0.69 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 64.28% | 22.14% | 13.57% |
| Imp Odds | 1.56 | 4.52 | 7.37 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 8.25% | 12.12 |
| 1.5 | 28.84% | 3.47 |
| 2.5 | 54.52% | 1.83 |
| 3.5 | 75.87% | 1.32 |
| 4.5 | 89.19% | 1.12 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 91.75% | 1.09 |
| 1.5 | 71.16% | 1.41 |
| 2.5 | 45.48% | 2.20 |
| 3.5 | 24.13% | 4.14 |
| 4.5 | 10.81% | 9.25 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 12.12 | 8.25% |
| 0-1 | 17.67 | 5.66% |
| 0-2 | 51.51 | 1.94% |
| 0-3 | 225.30 | 0.44% |
| 1-0 | 6.70 | 14.93% |
| 1-1 | 9.77 | 10.24% |
| 1-2 | 28.48 | 3.51% |
| 1-3 | 124.55 | 0.80% |
| 2-0 | 7.41 | 13.50% |
| 2-1 | 10.80 | 9.26% |
| 2-2 | 31.49 | 3.18% |
| 2-3 | 137.72 | 0.73% |
| 3-0 | 12.29 | 8.14% |
| 3-1 | 17.91 | 5.58% |
| 3-2 | 52.23 | 1.91% |
| 3-3 | 228.41 | 0.44% |
| Any Other Home Win | 9.12 | 10.96% |
| Any Other Away Win | 253.25 | 0.39% |
| Any Other Draw | 2,801.54 | 0.04% |