Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that win for Tottenham has a probability of 22.53%. A win for Arsenal has a probability of 33.98%, while a draw has a probability of 43.48%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a probability of 32.76%. The next most likely scorelines are 0-1 with a probability of 21.17% and 1-0 with a probability of 15.39%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on draw, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 3.74 for draw result, which is higher than the 2.3 calculated by our model.
This match also offers an opportunity for betting on total goals under 3.5, given that the average projected goals calculated by our model stand at 1.11 (based on XG)., as bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.62 for total goals under 3.5, which is higher than calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Tottenham | Arsenal | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
0.47 | 0.65 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 22.53% | 43.48% | 33.98% |
Imp Odds | 4.44 | 2.30 | 2.94 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 32.76% | 3.05 |
1.5 | 69.32% | 1.44 |
2.5 | 89.72% | 1.11 |
3.5 | 97.31% | 1.03 |
4.5 | 99.42% | 1.01 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 67.24% | 1.49 |
1.5 | 30.68% | 3.26 |
2.5 | 10.28% | 9.72 |
3.5 | 2.69% | 37.12 |
4.5 | 0.58% | 173.38 |
Correct Score Based On XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 3.05 | 32.76% |
0-1 | 4.72 | 21.17% |
0-2 | 14.62 | 6.84% |
0-3 | 67.89 | 1.47% |
1-0 | 6.50 | 15.39% |
1-1 | 10.05 | 9.95% |
1-2 | 31.12 | 3.21% |
1-3 | 144.49 | 0.69% |
2-0 | 27.66 | 3.62% |
2-1 | 42.80 | 2.34% |
2-2 | 132.47 | 0.75% |
2-3 | 615.02 | 0.16% |
3-0 | 176.58 | 0.57% |
3-1 | 273.27 | 0.37% |
3-2 | 845.82 | 0.12% |
3-3 | 3,926.90 | 0.03% |
Any Other Home Win | 717.85 | 0.14% |
Any Other Away Win | 614.22 | 0.16% |
Any Other Draw | 204,442.57 | 0.00% |