Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Manchester City is likely to win this match with a probability of 76.88%. A win for Burnley has a probability of 6.37%, while a draw has a probability of 16.71%. The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win is 2-0, with a probability of 17.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 with a probability of 16.31% and 3-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The most probable Burnley win is 0-1 with a probability of 3.37%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 7.66%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By Goals
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Manchester City | Burnley | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.13 | 0.44 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 76.88% | 16.71% | 6.37% |
| Imp Odds | 1.30 | 5.99 | 15.69 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 7.66% | 13.05 |
| 1.5 | 27.35% | 3.66 |
| 2.5 | 52.63% | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 74.28% | 1.35 |
| 4.5 | 88.18% | 1.13 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 92.34% | 1.08 |
| 1.5 | 72.65% | 1.38 |
| 2.5 | 47.37% | 2.11 |
| 3.5 | 25.72% | 3.89 |
| 4.5 | 11.82% | 8.46 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 13.05 | 7.66% |
| 0-1 | 29.66 | 3.37% |
| 0-2 | 134.82 | 0.74% |
| 0-3 | 919.28 | 0.11% |
| 1-0 | 6.13 | 16.31% |
| 1-1 | 13.93 | 7.18% |
| 1-2 | 63.33 | 1.58% |
| 1-3 | 431.85 | 0.23% |
| 2-0 | 5.76 | 17.36% |
| 2-1 | 13.09 | 7.64% |
| 2-2 | 59.50 | 1.68% |
| 2-3 | 405.74 | 0.25% |
| 3-0 | 8.12 | 12.32% |
| 3-1 | 18.45 | 5.42% |
| 3-2 | 83.86 | 1.19% |
| 3-3 | 571.82 | 0.17% |
| Any Other Home Win | 6.01 | 16.63% |
| Any Other Away Win | 1,255.83 | 0.08% |
| Any Other Draw | 9,407.19 | 0.01% |
By Goals
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Manchester City | Burnley | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.60 | 0.73 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 77.21% | 14.41% | 8.23% |
| Imp Odds | 1.30 | 6.94 | 12.14 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.57% | 27.97 |
| 1.5 | 15.48% | 6.46 |
| 2.5 | 35.32% | 2.83 |
| 3.5 | 57.34% | 1.74 |
| 4.5 | 75.69% | 1.32 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.43% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 84.52% | 1.18 |
| 2.5 | 64.68% | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 42.66% | 2.34 |
| 4.5 | 24.31% | 4.11 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 3.57% | 27.97 |
| 0-1 | 2.62% | 38.13 |
| 0-2 | 0.96% | 103.96 |
| 0-3 | 0.24% | 425.16 |
| 1-0 | 9.29% | 10.77 |
| 1-1 | 6.81% | 14.68 |
| 1-2 | 2.50% | 40.02 |
| 1-3 | 0.61% | 163.67 |
| 2-0 | 12.06% | 8.29 |
| 2-1 | 8.85% | 11.30 |
| 2-2 | 3.25% | 30.81 |
| 2-3 | 0.79% | 126.01 |
| 3-0 | 10.44% | 9.58 |
| 3-1 | 7.66% | 13.05 |
| 3-2 | 2.81% | 35.59 |
| 3-3 | 0.69% | 145.53 |
| Any Other Home Win | 26.10% | 3.83 |
| Any Other Away Win | 0.46% | 216.41 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.09% | 1,130.97 |