Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Inter will likely win this match with a probability of 69.68%. A win for Fiorentina has a probability of 10.94%, while a draw has a probability of 18.61%. The most likely scoreline for a Inter win is 0-2, with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 with a probability of 12.65% and 0-3 with a probability of 9.52%. The most probable Fiorentina win is 1-0 with a probability of 4.15%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 8.81%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Inter to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.82 for Inter win, which is higher than the 1.44 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Fiorentina | Inter | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
0.70 | 2.12 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 10.94% | 18.61% | 69.68% |
Imp Odds | 9.14 | 5.37 | 1.44 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 5.95% | 16.80 |
1.5 | 22.75% | 4.40 |
2.5 | 46.44% | 2.15 |
3.5 | 68.72% | 1.46 |
4.5 | 84.44% | 1.18 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 94.05% | 1.06 |
1.5 | 77.25% | 1.29 |
2.5 | 53.56% | 1.87 |
3.5 | 31.28% | 3.20 |
4.5 | 15.56% | 6.43 |
Correct Score Based On XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 16.80 | 5.95% |
0-1 | 7.91 | 12.65% |
0-2 | 7.44 | 13.44% |
0-3 | 10.51 | 9.52% |
1-0 | 24.12 | 4.15% |
1-1 | 11.35 | 8.81% |
1-2 | 10.68 | 9.36% |
1-3 | 15.09 | 6.63% |
2-0 | 69.26 | 1.44% |
2-1 | 32.60 | 3.07% |
2-2 | 30.68 | 3.26% |
2-3 | 43.32 | 2.31% |
3-0 | 298.32 | 0.34% |
3-1 | 140.41 | 0.71% |
3-2 | 132.16 | 0.76% |
3-3 | 186.61 | 0.54% |
Any Other Home Win | 208.48 | 0.48% |
Any Other Away Win | 12.12 | 8.25% |
Any Other Draw | 1,900.41 | 0.05% |