Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Napoli will likely win this match with a probability of 37.08%. A win for Lazio has a probability of 31.32%, while a draw has a probability of 31.58%. The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win is 0-1, with a probability of 14.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 7.54% and 1-2 with a probability of 6.82%. The most probable Lazio win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.29%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 14.69%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Napoli to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 3 for Juventus’s win, which is higher than the 2.7 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Lazio | Napoli | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.90 | 1.01 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 31.32% | 31.58% | 37.08% |
| Imp Odds | 3.19 | 3.17 | 2.70 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 14.69% | 6.81 |
| 1.5 | 42.87% | 2.33 |
| 2.5 | 69.89% | 1.43 |
| 3.5 | 87.16% | 1.15 |
| 4.5 | 95.45% | 1.05 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 85.31% | 1.17 |
| 1.5 | 57.13% | 1.75 |
| 2.5 | 30.11% | 3.32 |
| 3.5 | 12.84% | 7.79 |
| 4.5 | 4.55% | 21.96 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 14.69% | 6.81 |
| 0-1 | 14.89% | 6.72 |
| 0-2 | 7.54% | 13.26 |
| 0-3 | 2.55% | 39.27 |
| 1-0 | 13.29% | 7.52 |
| 1-1 | 13.47% | 7.43 |
| 1-2 | 6.82% | 14.66 |
| 1-3 | 2.30% | 43.40 |
| 2-0 | 6.01% | 16.63 |
| 2-1 | 6.09% | 16.42 |
| 2-2 | 3.09% | 32.41 |
| 2-3 | 1.04% | 95.96 |
| 3-0 | 1.81% | 55.15 |
| 3-1 | 1.84% | 54.44 |
| 3-2 | 0.93% | 107.46 |
| 3-3 | 0.31% | 318.20 |
| Any Other Home Win | 1.35% | 74.30 |
| Any Other Away Win | 1.16% | 86.48 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.02% | 5,353.22 |
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Lazio | Napoli | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.93 | 1.20 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 28.47% | 29.29% | 42.19% |
| Imp Odds | 3.51 | 3.41 | 2.37 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 11.82% | 8.46 |
| 1.5 | 37.06% | 2.70 |
| 2.5 | 64.01% | 1.56 |
| 3.5 | 83.19% | 1.20 |
| 4.5 | 93.43% | 1.07 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 88.18% | 1.13 |
| 1.5 | 62.94% | 1.59 |
| 2.5 | 35.99% | 2.78 |
| 3.5 | 16.81% | 5.95 |
| 4.5 | 6.57% | 15.22 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 8.46 | 11.82% |
| 0-1 | 7.03 | 14.22% |
| 0-2 | 11.69 | 8.56% |
| 0-3 | 29.15 | 3.43% |
| 1-0 | 9.08 | 11.02% |
| 1-1 | 7.54 | 13.26% |
| 1-2 | 12.54 | 7.98% |
| 1-3 | 31.26 | 3.20% |
| 2-0 | 19.47 | 5.14% |
| 2-1 | 16.18 | 6.18% |
| 2-2 | 26.90 | 3.72% |
| 2-3 | 67.07 | 1.49% |
| 3-0 | 62.65 | 1.60% |
| 3-1 | 52.07 | 1.92% |
| 3-2 | 86.56 | 1.16% |
| 3-3 | 215.83 | 0.46% |
| Any Other Home Win | 68.16 | 1.47% |
| Any Other Away Win | 49.44 | 2.02% |
| Any Other Draw | 2,942.49 | 0.03% |