Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Milan is likely to win this match with a probability of 52.87%. A win for Sassuolo has a probability of 26.73%, while a draw has a probability of 20.31%. The most likely scoreline for a Milan win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 17.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 8.8% and 3-1 with a probability of 6.51%. The most probable Sassuolo win is 1-2 with a probability of 6.15%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 7.92%.
This match offers an opportunity to bet on Sassuolo’s not to lose (win or draw), with bookmakers offering average odds for Barcelona win of 1.5, much lower than the 1.89 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| AC Milan | Sassuolo | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.22 | 1.55 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 52.87% | 20.31% | 26.73% |
| Imp Odds | 1.89 | 4.92 | 3.74 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.30% | 43.51 |
| 1.5 | 10.97% | 9.12 |
| 2.5 | 27.33% | 3.66 |
| 3.5 | 47.90% | 2.09 |
| 4.5 | 67.31% | 1.49 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.70% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 89.03% | 1.12 |
| 2.5 | 72.67% | 1.38 |
| 3.5 | 52.10% | 1.92 |
| 4.5 | 32.69% | 3.06 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 43.51 | 2.30% |
| 0-1 | 28.04 | 3.57% |
| 0-2 | 36.14 | 2.77% |
| 0-3 | 69.88 | 1.43% |
| 1-0 | 19.59 | 5.11% |
| 1-1 | 12.62 | 7.92% |
| 1-2 | 16.27 | 6.15% |
| 1-3 | 31.46 | 3.18% |
| 2-0 | 17.64 | 5.67% |
| 2-1 | 11.37 | 8.80% |
| 2-2 | 14.65 | 6.83% |
| 2-3 | 28.32 | 3.53% |
| 3-0 | 23.82 | 4.20% |
| 3-1 | 15.35 | 6.51% |
| 3-2 | 19.79 | 5.05% |
| 3-3 | 38.25 | 2.61% |
| Any Other Home Win | 5.71 | 17.53% |
| Any Other Away Win | 18.64 | 5.37% |
| Any Other Draw | 154.13 | 0.65% |