Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Monza is likely to win this match with a probability of 42.9%. A win for Fiorentina has a probability of 25.4%, while a draw has a probability of 31.69%. The most likely scoreline for a Monza win is 1-0, with a probability of 17.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 9.3% and 2-1 with a probability of 7.1%. The most probable Fiorentina win is 1-0 with a probability of 5.82%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 11.97%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Monza’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 3, much higher than the 2.33 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result
Goals Over/Under