Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Mainz is likely to win this match with a probability of 45.37%. A win for Union Berlin has a probability of 24.64%, while a draw has a probability of 29.98%. The most likely scoreline for a Mainz win is 1-0, with a probability of 16.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 9.73% and 2-1 with a probability of 7.8%. The most probable Union Berlin win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 13.51%.
This match offers an enticing opportunity for betting on total goals under 2.5, given that the average projected goals calculated by our model stand at 2
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Mainz 05 | Union Berlin | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.20 | 0.80 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 45.37% | 29.98% | 24.64% |
Imp Odds | 2.20 | 3.34 | 4.06 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 13.51% | 7.40 |
1.5 | 40.55% | 2.47 |
2.5 | 67.61% | 1.48 |
3.5 | 85.68% | 1.17 |
4.5 | 94.72% | 1.06 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 86.49% | 1.16 |
1.5 | 59.45% | 1.68 |
2.5 | 32.39% | 3.09 |
3.5 | 14.32% | 6.98 |
4.5 | 5.28% | 18.93 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 7.40 | 13.51% |
0-1 | 9.24 | 10.83% |
0-2 | 23.05 | 4.34% |
0-3 | 86.28 | 1.16% |
1-0 | 6.17 | 16.21% |
1-1 | 7.69 | 13.00% |
1-2 | 19.20 | 5.21% |
1-3 | 71.87 | 1.39% |
2-0 | 10.27 | 9.73% |
2-1 | 12.82 | 7.80% |
2-2 | 31.99 | 3.13% |
2-3 | 119.73 | 0.84% |
3-0 | 25.67 | 3.89% |
3-1 | 32.03 | 3.12% |
3-2 | 79.93 | 1.25% |
3-3 | 299.19 | 0.33% |
Any Other Home Win | 29.80 | 3.36% |
Any Other Away Win | 163.51 | 0.61% |
Any Other Draw | 4,785.72 | 0.02% |