Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Nice is likely to win this match with a probability of 51.61%. A win for Monaco has a probability of 20.66%, while a draw has a probability of 27.73%. The most likely scoreline for a Nice win is 1-0, with a probability of 16.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 11.19% and 2-1 with a probability of 8.52%. The most probable Monaco win is 0-1 with a probability of 8.94%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.34%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Nice to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 2.3 for Nice’s win, which is higher than the 1.87 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Nice | Monaco | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.73 | 1.04 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 53.53% | 23.77% | 22.67% |
| Imp Odds | 1.87 | 4.21 | 4.41 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 6.30% | 15.87 |
| 1.5 | 23.72% | 4.22 |
| 2.5 | 47.80% | 2.09 |
| 3.5 | 69.99% | 1.43 |
| 4.5 | 85.32% | 1.17 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 93.70% | 1.07 |
| 1.5 | 76.28% | 1.31 |
| 2.5 | 52.20% | 1.92 |
| 3.5 | 30.01% | 3.33 |
| 4.5 | 14.68% | 6.81 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 15.87 | 6.30% |
| 0-1 | 15.30 | 6.54% |
| 0-2 | 29.50 | 3.39% |
| 0-3 | 85.31 | 1.17% |
| 1-0 | 9.19 | 10.88% |
| 1-1 | 8.86 | 11.29% |
| 1-2 | 17.08 | 5.86% |
| 1-3 | 49.40 | 2.02% |
| 2-0 | 10.64 | 9.40% |
| 2-1 | 10.26 | 9.75% |
| 2-2 | 19.78 | 5.06% |
| 2-3 | 57.20 | 1.75% |
| 3-0 | 18.48 | 5.41% |
| 3-1 | 17.82 | 5.61% |
| 3-2 | 34.36 | 2.91% |
| 3-3 | 99.36 | 1.01% |
| Any Other Home Win | 10.45 | 9.57% |
| Any Other Away Win | 63.37 | 1.58% |
| Any Other Draw | 825.23 | 0.12% |
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