Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Barcelona is likely to win this match with a probability of 75.44%. A win for Villarreal has a probability of 10.86%, while a draw has a probability of 13.17%. The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 37.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-1 with a probability of 8.08% and 3-0 with a probability of 6.77%. The most probable Villarreal win is 1-2 with a probability of 2.9%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 4.86%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By Goals
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Barcelona | Villarreal | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 3.16 | 1.19 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 75.44% | 13.17% | 10.86% |
| Imp Odds | 1.33 | 7.60 | 9.21 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.29% | 77.44 |
| 1.5 | 6.91% | 14.48 |
| 2.5 | 19.12% | 5.23 |
| 3.5 | 36.83% | 2.72 |
| 4.5 | 56.09% | 1.78 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.71% | 1.01 |
| 1.5 | 93.09% | 1.07 |
| 2.5 | 80.88% | 1.24 |
| 3.5 | 63.17% | 1.58 |
| 4.5 | 43.91% | 2.28 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 77.44 | 1.29% |
| 0-1 | 64.95 | 1.54% |
| 0-2 | 108.95 | 0.92% |
| 0-3 | 274.12 | 0.36% |
| 1-0 | 24.53 | 4.08% |
| 1-1 | 20.57 | 4.86% |
| 1-2 | 34.51 | 2.90% |
| 1-3 | 86.82 | 1.15% |
| 2-0 | 15.54 | 6.44% |
| 2-1 | 13.03 | 7.67% |
| 2-2 | 21.86 | 4.57% |
| 2-3 | 55.00 | 1.82% |
| 3-0 | 14.76 | 6.77% |
| 3-1 | 12.38 | 8.08% |
| 3-2 | 20.77 | 4.81% |
| 3-3 | 52.26 | 1.91% |
| Any Other Home Win | 2.66 | 37.59% |
| Any Other Away Win | 49.12 | 2.04% |
| Any Other Draw | 190.24 | 0.53% |
By Goals
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Barcelona | Villarreal | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.82 | 0.91 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 76.55% | 13.83% | 9.36% |
| Imp Odds | 1.31 | 7.23 | 10.68 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.38% | 42.09 |
| 1.5 | 11.26% | 8.88 |
| 2.5 | 27.88% | 3.59 |
| 3.5 | 48.59% | 2.06 |
| 4.5 | 67.95% | 1.47 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.62% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 88.74% | 1.13 |
| 2.5 | 72.12% | 1.39 |
| 3.5 | 51.41% | 1.95 |
| 4.5 | 32.05% | 3.12 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 2.38% | 42.09 |
| 0-1 | 2.17% | 46.00 |
| 0-2 | 0.99% | 100.55 |
| 0-3 | 0.30% | 329.69 |
| 1-0 | 6.71% | 14.90 |
| 1-1 | 6.14% | 16.28 |
| 1-2 | 2.81% | 35.60 |
| 1-3 | 0.86% | 116.71 |
| 2-0 | 9.48% | 10.55 |
| 2-1 | 8.67% | 11.53 |
| 2-2 | 3.97% | 25.20 |
| 2-3 | 1.21% | 82.63 |
| 3-0 | 8.93% | 11.20 |
| 3-1 | 8.17% | 12.24 |
| 3-2 | 3.74% | 26.76 |
| 3-3 | 1.14% | 87.76 |
| Any Other Home Win | 30.85% | 3.24 |
| Any Other Away Win | 0.93% | 107.04 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.20% | 488.88 |