Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Real Madrid is likely to win this match with a probability of 56.57%. A win for Las Palmas has a probability of 19.27%, while a draw has a probability of 23.9%. The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is 0-1, with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 10.96% and 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The most probable Las Palmas win is 1-0 with a probability of 6.85%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 11.33%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Las Palmas not to lose the match for 2.65, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 6.8 for Las Palmas win, which is higher than the 5.19 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Las Palmas | Real Madrid | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
0.88 | 1.70 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 19.27% | 23.90% | 56.57% |
Imp Odds | 5.19 | 4.18 | 1.77 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 7.56% | 13.22 |
1.5 | 27.09% | 3.69 |
2.5 | 52.30% | 1.91 |
3.5 | 74.00% | 1.35 |
4.5 | 88.00% | 1.14 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 92.44% | 1.08 |
1.5 | 72.91% | 1.37 |
2.5 | 47.70% | 2.10 |
3.5 | 26.00% | 3.85 |
4.5 | 12.00% | 8.33 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 13.22 | 7.56% |
0-1 | 7.77 | 12.87% |
0-2 | 9.13 | 10.96% |
0-3 | 16.09 | 6.22% |
1-0 | 15.03 | 6.65% |
1-1 | 8.83 | 11.33% |
1-2 | 10.38 | 9.64% |
1-3 | 18.29 | 5.47% |
2-0 | 34.17 | 2.93% |
2-1 | 20.08 | 4.98% |
2-2 | 23.59 | 4.24% |
2-3 | 41.58 | 2.41% |
3-0 | 116.54 | 0.86% |
3-1 | 68.47 | 1.46% |
3-2 | 80.45 | 1.24% |
3-3 | 141.79 | 0.71% |
Any Other Home Win | 87.32 | 1.15% |
Any Other Away Win | 18.58 | 5.38% |
Any Other Draw | 1,426.17 | 0.07% |