Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Barcelona is likely to win this match with a probability of 76.36%. A win for Rayo Vallecano has a probability of 9.13%, while a draw has a probability of 11.9%. The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win is “Any Other Away Win,” with a probability of 27.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-3 with a probability of 8.05% and 1-2 with a probability of 7.29%. The most probable Rayo Vallecano win is 2-1 with a probability of 2.5%, while for a drawn scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 4.4%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Barcelona’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 1.7, much higher than the 1.31 calculated by our model.
Below are tables with match analyses by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.