Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Valencia is likely to win this match with a probability of 66.11%. A win for Celta Vigo has a probability of 12.35%, while a draw has a probability of 21.53%. The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win is 1-0, with a probability of 15.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 14.1% and “Any Other Home Win” with a probability of 11.54%. The most probable Celta Vigo win is 0-1 with a probability of 5.36%, while for a drawn scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 9.88%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Valencia’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 2.2, much higher than the 1.51 calculated by our model.
Below are tables with match analyses by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Match Result Market
Over and Under Market