Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Rayo Vallecano is likely to win this match with a probability of 46.35%. A win for Las Palmas has a probability of 26.02%, while a draw has a probability of 27.62%. The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win is 1-0, with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 9.24% and 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The most probable Las Palmas win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.47%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.83%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Las Palmas | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.35 | 0.94 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 46.35% | 27.62% | 26.02% |
| Imp Odds | 2.16 | 3.62 | 3.84 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 10.07% | 9.93 |
| 1.5 | 33.19% | 3.01 |
| 2.5 | 59.72% | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 80.02% | 1.25 |
| 4.5 | 91.68% | 1.09 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 89.93% | 1.11 |
| 1.5 | 66.81% | 1.50 |
| 2.5 | 40.28% | 2.48 |
| 3.5 | 19.98% | 5.01 |
| 4.5 | 8.32% | 12.01 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 9.93 | 10.07% |
| 0-1 | 10.56 | 9.47% |
| 0-2 | 22.44 | 4.46% |
| 0-3 | 71.57 | 1.40% |
| 1-0 | 7.33 | 13.64% |
| 1-1 | 7.79 | 12.83% |
| 1-2 | 16.56 | 6.04% |
| 1-3 | 52.83 | 1.89% |
| 2-0 | 10.82 | 9.24% |
| 2-1 | 11.50 | 8.69% |
| 2-2 | 24.45 | 4.09% |
| 2-3 | 77.98 | 1.28% |
| 3-0 | 23.96 | 4.17% |
| 3-1 | 25.47 | 3.93% |
| 3-2 | 54.14 | 1.85% |
| 3-3 | 172.66 | 0.58% |
| Any Other Home Win | 20.76 | 4.82% |
| Any Other Away Win | 91.76 | 1.09% |
| Any Other Draw | 2,058.72 | 0.05% |