Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Real Sociedad is likely to win this match with a probability of 54.74%. A win for Villarreal has a probability of 24.31%, while a draw has a probability of 20.52%. The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 9.29% and 1-3 with a probability of 6.72%. The most probable Villarreal win is 2-1 with a probability of 5.97%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 8.56%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Real Sociedad’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 2.22, much higher than the 1.83 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Villarreal | Real Sociedad | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.40 | 2.17 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 24.31% | 20.52% | 54.74% |
| Imp Odds | 4.11 | 4.87 | 1.83 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.82% | 35.42 |
| 1.5 | 12.89% | 7.76 |
| 2.5 | 30.86% | 3.24 |
| 3.5 | 52.22% | 1.92 |
| 4.5 | 71.27% | 1.40 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.18% | 1.03 |
| 1.5 | 87.11% | 1.15 |
| 2.5 | 69.14% | 1.45 |
| 3.5 | 47.78% | 2.09 |
| 4.5 | 28.73% | 3.48 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| 2-3 | 21.31 | 4.69% |
| 3-0 | 78.08 | 1.28% |
| 3-1 | 35.96 | 2.78% |
| 3-2 | 33.13 | 3.02% |
| 3-3 | 45.78 | 2.18% |
| Any Other Home Win | 21.93 | 4.56% |
| Any Other Away Win | 8.00 | 12.50% |
| Any Other Draw | 213.43 | 0.47% |
Full-time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Villarreal | Real Sociedad | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.30 | 2.12 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 23.02% | 20.77% | 55.78% |
| Imp Odds | 4.34 | 4.82 | 1.79 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 3.27% | 30.58 |
| 1.5 | 14.46% | 6.92 |
| 2.5 | 33.58% | 2.98 |
| 3.5 | 55.39% | 1.81 |
| 4.5 | 74.04% | 1.35 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 96.73% | 1.03 |
| 1.5 | 85.54% | 1.17 |
| 2.5 | 66.42% | 1.51 |
| 3.5 | 44.61% | 2.24 |
| 4.5 | 25.96% | 3.85 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 3.27% | 30.58 |
| 0-1 | 6.93% | 14.42 |
| 0-2 | 7.35% | 13.60 |
| 0-3 | 5.20% | 19.25 |
| 1-0 | 4.25% | 23.52 |
| 1-1 | 9.01% | 11.09 |
| 1-2 | 9.56% | 10.46 |
| 1-3 | 6.75% | 14.81 |
| 2-0 | 2.76% | 36.18 |
| 2-1 | 5.86% | 17.07 |
| 2-2 | 6.21% | 16.10 |
| 2-3 | 4.39% | 22.78 |
| 3-0 | 1.20% | 83.50 |
| 3-1 | 2.54% | 39.38 |
| 3-2 | 2.69% | 37.15 |
| 3-3 | 1.90% | 52.56 |
| Any Other Home Win | 3.72% | 26.92 |
| Any Other Away Win | 11.51% | 8.69 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.37% | 272.61 |