Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Lens is likely to win this match with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Monaco has a probability of 35.73%, while a draw has a probability of 19.29%. The most likely scoreline for a Lens win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 19.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 6.64% and 3-2 with a probability of 5.6%. The most probable Monaco win is “Any Other Away Win” with a probability of 12.47%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 2-2 with a probability of 7.07%.
This match also offers an opportunity for betting on total goals over 2.5, given that the average projected goals calculated by our model stand at 3.99 based on goal statistics, and 4.5 based on expected goals, or XG.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Lens | Monaco | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.38 | 2.13 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 44.72% | 19.29% | 35.73% |
| Imp Odds | 2.24 | 5.18 | 2.80 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.10% | 90.59 |
| 1.5 | 6.08% | 16.45 |
| 2.5 | 17.29% | 5.78 |
| 3.5 | 34.12% | 2.93 |
| 4.5 | 53.09% | 1.88 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.90% | 1.01 |
| 1.5 | 93.92% | 1.06 |
| 2.5 | 82.71% | 1.21 |
| 3.5 | 65.88% | 1.52 |
| 4.5 | 46.91% | 2.13 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 90.59 | 1.10% |
| 0-1 | 42.51 | 2.35% |
| 0-2 | 39.89 | 2.51% |
| 0-3 | 56.16 | 1.78% |
| 1-0 | 38.14 | 2.62% |
| 1-1 | 17.90 | 5.59% |
| 1-2 | 16.80 | 5.95% |
| 1-3 | 23.64 | 4.23% |
| 2-0 | 32.12 | 3.11% |
| 2-1 | 15.07 | 6.64% |
| 2-2 | 14.14 | 7.07% |
| 2-3 | 19.91 | 5.02% |
| 3-0 | 40.56 | 2.47% |
| 3-1 | 19.03 | 5.25% |
| 3-2 | 17.86 | 5.60% |
| 3-3 | 25.14 | 3.98% |
| Any Other Home Win | 5.25 | 19.03% |
| Any Other Away Win | 8.02 | 12.47% |
| Any Other Draw | 64.40 | 1.55% |
Projected Goals
| Projected Home Goals | 2.375213119 |
| Projected Away Goals | 2.131149321 |
| Projected Total Goals | 4.50636244 |
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Lens | Monaco | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.25 | 1.74 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 49.68% | 20.14% | 30.05% |
| Imp Odds | 2.01 | 4.97 | 3.33 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.84% | 54.27 |
| 1.5 | 9.20% | 10.87 |
| 2.5 | 23.90% | 4.18 |
| 3.5 | 43.46% | 2.30 |
| 4.5 | 63.00% | 1.59 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.16% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 90.80% | 1.10 |
| 2.5 | 76.10% | 1.31 |
| 3.5 | 56.54% | 1.77 |
| 4.5 | 37.00% | 2.70 |
Correct Score Based On Goals
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 1.84% | 54.27 |
| 0-1 | 3.21% | 31.17 |
| 0-2 | 2.79% | 35.81 |
| 0-3 | 1.62% | 61.71 |
| 1-0 | 4.15% | 24.09 |
| 1-1 | 7.23% | 13.84 |
| 1-2 | 6.29% | 15.89 |
| 1-3 | 3.65% | 27.39 |
| 2-0 | 4.68% | 21.38 |
| 2-1 | 8.14% | 12.28 |
| 2-2 | 7.09% | 14.11 |
| 2-3 | 4.11% | 24.31 |
| 3-0 | 3.51% | 28.47 |
| 3-1 | 6.11% | 16.35 |
| 3-2 | 5.32% | 18.79 |
| 3-3 | 3.09% | 32.37 |
| Any Other Home Win | 17.76% | 5.63 |
| Any Other Away Wins | 7.40% | 13.51 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.89% | 112.34 |
Projected Goals
| Projected Home Goals | 2.253024017 |
| Projected Away Goals | 1.740985905 |
| Projected Total Goals | 3.994009921 |
Find your next winning bet: Our expert predictions for upcoming Ligue 1 matches.