Manchester United vs Everton

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Manchester United is likely to win this match with a probability of 39.12%. A win for Everton has a probability of 36.92%, while a draw has a probability of 23.87%. The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win is 2-1, with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scoreline for that outcome is 1-0 with a probability of 7.13%. The most probable Everton win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.25%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 10.85%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Everton not to lose the match. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 4.2 for Everton win, higher than our model’s predictions of 2.95 (based on goal statistics) and 2.71 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Everton a risky, but potentially valuable underdog bet.

The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.