Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that PSG is likely to win this match with a probability of 43.38%. A win for Lille has a probability of 36.5%, while a draw has a probability of 19.8%. The most likely scoreline for a PSG win is “Any Other Away Win“, with a probability of 14.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 with a probability of 7.01% and 2-3 with a probability of 5.41%. The most probable Lille win is “Any Other Home Win” with a probability of 13.17%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 2-2 with a probability of 7.21%.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
By XG
By XG
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Lille | Paris Saint Germain | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
2.06 | 2.25 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 36.50% | 19.80% | 43.38% |
Imp Odds | 2.74 | 5.05 | 2.31 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 1.34% | 74.40 |
1.5 | 7.14% | 14.01 |
2.5 | 19.62% | 5.10 |
3.5 | 37.55% | 2.66 |
4.5 | 56.86% | 1.76 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 98.66% | 1.01 |
1.5 | 92.86% | 1.08 |
2.5 | 80.38% | 1.24 |
3.5 | 62.45% | 1.60 |
4.5 | 43.14% | 2.32 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 74.40 | 1.34% |
0-1 | 33.06 | 3.03% |
0-2 | 29.37 | 3.40% |
0-3 | 39.16 | 2.55% |
1-0 | 36.14 | 2.77% |
1-1 | 16.06 | 6.23% |
1-2 | 14.27 | 7.01% |
1-3 | 19.02 | 5.26% |
2-0 | 35.10 | 2.85% |
2-1 | 15.60 | 6.41% |
2-2 | 13.86 | 7.21% |
2-3 | 18.48 | 5.41% |
3-0 | 51.15 | 1.95% |
3-1 | 22.73 | 4.40% |
3-2 | 20.20 | 4.95% |
3-3 | 26.92 | 3.71% |
Any Other Home Win | 7.60 | 13.17% |
Any Other Away Win | 6.89 | 14.52% |
Any Other Draw | 76.73 | 1.30% |