Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Marseille is likely to win this match with a probability of 65.45%. A win for Montpellier has a probability of 11.62%, while a draw has a probability of 22.92%. The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win is 1-0, with a probability of 17.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 15.16% and “Any Other Away Win“ with a probability of 9.35%. The most probable Montpellier win is 0-1 with a probability of 5.8%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 10.44%.
This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Marseille to win. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 1.7, higher than our model’s predictions of 1.53 (based on goal statistics) and 1.35 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Marseille a potentially valuable bet.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Marseille | Montpellier | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.70 | 0.56 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 65.45% | 22.92% | 11.62% |
| Imp Odds | 1.53 | 4.36 | 8.61 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 10.44% | 9.57 |
| 1.5 | 34.04% | 2.94 |
| 2.5 | 60.69% | 1.65 |
| 3.5 | 80.76% | 1.24 |
| 4.5 | 92.10% | 1.09 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 89.56% | 1.12 |
| 1.5 | 65.96% | 1.52 |
| 2.5 | 39.31% | 2.54 |
| 3.5 | 19.24% | 5.20 |
| 4.5 | 7.90% | 12.65 |
Correct Score Based On Goals
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 10.44% | 9.57 |
| 0-1 | 5.80% | 17.25 |
| 0-2 | 1.61% | 62.14 |
| 0-3 | 0.30% | 335.85 |
| 1-0 | 17.80% | 5.62 |
| 1-1 | 9.88% | 10.12 |
| 1-2 | 2.74% | 36.47 |
| 1-3 | 0.51% | 197.10 |
| 2-0 | 15.16% | 6.59 |
| 2-1 | 8.42% | 11.88 |
| 2-2 | 2.34% | 42.81 |
| 2-3 | 0.43% | 231.34 |
| 3-0 | 8.61% | 11.61 |
| 3-1 | 4.78% | 20.92 |
| 3-2 | 1.33% | 75.36 |
| 3-3 | 0.25% | 407.30 |
| Any Other Home Win | 9.35% | 10.69 |
| Any Other Away Wins | 0.19% | 536.51 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.02% | 6,632.07 |
Projected Goals
| Projected Home Goals | 1.703967744 |
| Projected Away Goals | 0.5550969551 |
| Projected Total Goals | 2.259064699 |
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Marseille | Montpellier | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.20 | 0.60 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 74.13% | 17.15% | 8.67% |
| Imp Odds | 1.35 | 5.83 | 11.53 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 6.04% | 16.56 |
| 1.5 | 22.99% | 4.35 |
| 2.5 | 46.78% | 2.14 |
| 3.5 | 69.03% | 1.45 |
| 4.5 | 84.66% | 1.18 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 93.96% | 1.06 |
| 1.5 | 77.01% | 1.30 |
| 2.5 | 53.22% | 1.88 |
| 3.5 | 30.97% | 3.23 |
| 4.5 | 15.34% | 6.52 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 16.56 | 6.04% |
| 0-1 | 27.49 | 3.64% |
| 0-2 | 91.26 | 1.10% |
| 0-3 | 454.46 | 0.22% |
| 1-0 | 7.51 | 13.31% |
| 1-1 | 12.47 | 8.02% |
| 1-2 | 41.40 | 2.42% |
| 1-3 | 206.13 | 0.49% |
| 2-0 | 6.81 | 14.67% |
| 2-1 | 11.31 | 8.84% |
| 2-2 | 37.55 | 2.66% |
| 2-3 | 187.00 | 0.53% |
| 3-0 | 9.27 | 10.78% |
| 3-1 | 15.39 | 6.50% |
| 3-2 | 51.10 | 1.96% |
| 3-3 | 254.45 | 0.39% |
| Any Other Home Win | 5.53 | 18.07% |
| Any Other Away Win | 406.81 | 0.25% |
| Any Other Draw | 2,904.99 | 0.03% |
Projected Goals
| Projected Home Goals | 2.204685606 |
| Projected Away Goals | 0.6024577677 |
| Projected Total Goals | 2.807143374 |
Find your next winning bet: Our expert predictions for upcoming Ligue 1 matches.