Toulouse vs Lille Prediction

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Lille is likely to win this match with a probability of 42.89%. A win for Toulouse has a probability of 27.61%, while a draw has a probability of 29.46%. The most likely scoreline for a Lille win is 0-1, with a probability of 14.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 8.81% and 1-2 with a probability of 7.95%. The most probable Toulouse win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.18%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Toulouse not to lose the match. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 3.96 for Toulouse to win, higher than our model’s predictions of 3.62 (based on goal statistics) and 2.81 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Toulouse a risky, but potentially valuable underdog bet.

The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.