Metz vs Lyon Prediction

Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Lyon is likely to win this match with a probability of 39.28%. A win for Metz has a probability of 26.83%, while a draw has a probability of 33.87%. The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win is 0-1, with a probability of 17.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 8.44% and 1-2 with a probability of 6.19%. The most probable Metz win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.54%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 18.47%.

This match presents a compelling opportunity to bet on Metz not to lose the match. Bookmakers are offering average odds of 4.4 for Metz to win, higher than our model’s predictions of 3.17 (based on goal statistics) and 3.73 (based on expected goals, or XG, which estimates the likelihood of scoring based on shot quality and location). This discrepancy suggests that bookmakers may be overvaluing the opponent, making Metz a risky, but potentially valuable underdog bet.

The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.