Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Toulouse will likely win this match with a probability of 39%. A win for Lens has a probability of 34.73%, while a draw has a probability of 26.22%. The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win is 1-0, with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 8.46% and 2-0 with a probability of 6.68%. The most probable Lens win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.19%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 12.47%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Toulouse not to lose for 1.75, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 3.55 for Toulouse’s win, which is higher than the 2.56 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Toulouse | Lens | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.36 | 1.27 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 39.00% | 26.22% | 34.73% |
Imp Odds | 2.56 | 3.81 | 2.88 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 7.26% | 13.78 |
1.5 | 26.29% | 3.80 |
2.5 | 51.26% | 1.95 |
3.5 | 73.10% | 1.37 |
4.5 | 87.41% | 1.14 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 92.74% | 1.08 |
1.5 | 73.71% | 1.36 |
2.5 | 48.74% | 2.05 |
3.5 | 26.90% | 3.72 |
4.5 | 12.59% | 7.94 |
Correct Score Based On XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 13.78 | 7.26% |
0-1 | 10.88 | 9.19% |
0-2 | 17.19 | 5.82% |
0-3 | 40.72 | 2.46% |
1-0 | 10.16 | 9.85% |
1-1 | 8.02 | 12.47% |
1-2 | 12.67 | 7.90% |
1-3 | 30.01 | 3.33% |
2-0 | 14.97 | 6.68% |
2-1 | 11.82 | 8.46% |
2-2 | 18.67 | 5.36% |
2-3 | 44.23 | 2.26% |
3-0 | 33.10 | 3.02% |
3-1 | 26.14 | 3.83% |
3-2 | 41.28 | 2.42% |
3-3 | 97.80 | 1.02% |
Any Other Home Win | 21.09 | 4.74% |
Any Other Away Win | 35.75 | 2.80% |
Any Other Draw | 849.43 | 0.12% |
Full-time Result
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Toulouse | Lens | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.06 | 0.84 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 40.07% | 31.60% | 28.32% |
Imp Odds | 2.50 | 3.16 | 3.53 |
Goals Over/Under
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 15.04% | 6.65 |
1.5 | 43.53% | 2.30 |
2.5 | 70.52% | 1.42 |
3.5 | 87.56% | 1.14 |
4.5 | 95.64% | 1.05 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 84.96% | 1.18 |
1.5 | 56.47% | 1.77 |
2.5 | 29.48% | 3.39 |
3.5 | 12.44% | 8.04 |
4.5 | 4.36% | 22.91 |
Correct Score
Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
0-0 | 15.04% | 6.65 |
0-1 | 12.59% | 7.94 |
0-2 | 5.27% | 18.97 |
0-3 | 1.47% | 67.95 |
1-0 | 15.90% | 6.29 |
1-1 | 13.31% | 7.51 |
1-2 | 5.57% | 17.94 |
1-3 | 1.56% | 64.27 |
2-0 | 8.40% | 11.90 |
2-1 | 7.04% | 14.21 |
2-2 | 2.95% | 33.94 |
2-3 | 0.82% | 121.58 |
3-0 | 2.96% | 33.76 |
3-1 | 2.48% | 40.32 |
3-2 | 1.04% | 96.30 |
3-3 | 0.29% | 345.00 |
Any Other Home Win | 2.25% | 44.44 |
Any Other Away Win | 0.67% | 149.22 |
Any Other Draw | 0.02% | 6,016.59 |