Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Fulham is likely to win this match with a probability of 61.78%. A win for Aston Villa has a probability of 14.91%, while a draw has a probability of 23.31%. The most likely scoreline for a Fulham win is 1-0, with a probability of 15.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 with a probability of 13.1% and “Any Other Home Win” with a probability of 9.56%. The most probable Aston Villa win is 0-1 with a probability of 6.24%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 10.73%.
This match presents an excellent opportunity to consider betting on Fulham to win the match, as bookmakers are offering average odds of 2.5 for Fulham’s win, which is higher than the 1.62 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Fulham | Aston Villa | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.72 | 0.70 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 61.78% | 23.31% | 14.91% |
| Imp Odds | 1.62 | 4.29 | 6.71 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 8.87% | 11.28 |
| 1.5 | 30.35% | 3.30 |
| 2.5 | 56.37% | 1.77 |
| 3.5 | 77.39% | 1.29 |
| 4.5 | 90.12% | 1.11 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 91.13% | 1.10 |
| 1.5 | 69.65% | 1.44 |
| 2.5 | 43.63% | 2.29 |
| 3.5 | 22.61% | 4.42 |
| 4.5 | 9.88% | 10.12 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 8.87% | 11.28 |
| 0-1 | 6.24% | 16.03 |
| 0-2 | 2.20% | 45.54 |
| 0-3 | 0.52% | 194.12 |
| 1-0 | 15.24% | 6.56 |
| 1-1 | 10.73% | 9.32 |
| 1-2 | 3.77% | 26.49 |
| 1-3 | 0.89% | 112.92 |
| 2-0 | 13.10% | 7.63 |
| 2-1 | 9.22% | 10.84 |
| 2-2 | 3.24% | 30.82 |
| 2-3 | 0.76% | 131.36 |
| 3-0 | 7.51% | 13.32 |
| 3-1 | 5.28% | 18.92 |
| 3-2 | 1.86% | 53.78 |
| 3-3 | 0.44% | 229.22 |
| Any Other Home Win | 9.56% | 10.46 |
| Any Other Away Win | 0.43% | 232.39 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.03% | 2,886.52 |
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Fulham | Aston Villa | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.82 | 0.62 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 66.31% | 21.68% | 11.99% |
| Imp Odds | 1.51 | 4.61 | 8.34 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 8.71% | 11.48 |
| 1.5 | 29.97% | 3.34 |
| 2.5 | 55.92% | 1.79 |
| 3.5 | 77.02% | 1.30 |
| 4.5 | 89.90% | 1.11 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 91.29% | 1.10 |
| 1.5 | 70.03% | 1.43 |
| 2.5 | 44.08% | 2.27 |
| 3.5 | 22.98% | 4.35 |
| 4.5 | 10.10% | 9.90 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 11.48 | 8.71% |
| 0-1 | 18.53 | 5.40% |
| 0-2 | 59.84 | 1.67% |
| 0-3 | 289.87 | 0.34% |
| 1-0 | 6.30 | 15.87% |
| 1-1 | 10.18 | 9.83% |
| 1-2 | 32.86 | 3.04% |
| 1-3 | 159.17 | 0.63% |
| 2-0 | 6.92 | 14.45% |
| 2-1 | 11.18 | 8.95% |
| 2-2 | 36.09 | 2.77% |
| 2-3 | 174.81 | 0.57% |
| 3-0 | 11.40 | 8.77% |
| 3-1 | 18.41 | 5.43% |
| 3-2 | 59.45 | 1.68% |
| 3-3 | 287.98 | 0.35% |
| Any Other Home Win | 8.95 | 11.17% |
| Any Other Away Win | 362.11 | 0.28% |
| Any Other Draw | 3,903.38 | 0.03% |