Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Aston Villa is likely to win this match with a probability of 73.24%. A win for Newcastle United has a probability of 11.86%, while a draw has a probability of 14.61%. The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 31.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 8.52% and 3-1 with a probability of 8.17%. The most probable Newcastle United win is 0-1 with a probability of 3.31%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 5.92%.
This match offers an enticing opportunity for betting on total goals over 2.5, given that the average projected goals calculated by our model stand at 4
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.88 | 1.12 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 73.24% | 14.61% | 11.86% |
| Imp Odds | 1.37 | 6.85 | 8.44 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.84% | 54.21 |
| 1.5 | 9.21% | 10.86 |
| 2.5 | 23.92% | 4.18 |
| 3.5 | 43.49% | 2.30 |
| 4.5 | 63.02% | 1.59 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.16% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 90.79% | 1.10 |
| 2.5 | 76.08% | 1.31 |
| 3.5 | 56.51% | 1.77 |
| 4.5 | 36.98% | 2.70 |
Correct Score Based on XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 54.21 | 1.84% |
| 0-1 | 48.57 | 2.06% |
| 0-2 | 87.04 | 1.15% |
| 0-3 | 233.95 | 0.43% |
| 1-0 | 18.84 | 5.31% |
| 1-1 | 16.88 | 5.92% |
| 1-2 | 30.25 | 3.31% |
| 1-3 | 81.32 | 1.23% |
| 2-0 | 13.10 | 7.63% |
| 2-1 | 11.74 | 8.52% |
| 2-2 | 21.03 | 4.75% |
| 2-3 | 56.54 | 1.77% |
| 3-0 | 13.66 | 7.32% |
| 3-1 | 12.24 | 8.17% |
| 3-2 | 21.94 | 4.56% |
| 3-3 | 58.96 | 1.70% |
| Any Other Home Win | 3.15 | 31.74% |
| Any Other Away Win | 56.51 | 1.77% |
| Any Other Draw | 257.59 | 0.39% |