Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Aston Villa is likely to win this match with a probability of 56.08%. A win for Tottenham has a probability of 25.12%, while a draw has a probability of 18.62%. The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win is “Any Other Home Win“, with a probability of 23.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 with a probability of 7.9% and 3-1 with a probability of 6.7%. The most probable Tottenham win is “Any Other Away Win” with a probability of 6.69%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 2.2 with a probability of 6.71%.
This match presents an opportunity to bet on Aston Villa scoring over 1.5 goals, considering that our model projects an average of 2.3 goals based on expected goals (XG) and 2.54 goals based on actual goals scored statistics.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.54 | 1.70 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 56.08% | 18.62% | 25.12% |
| Imp Odds | 1.78 | 5.37 | 3.98 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.44% | 69.57 |
| 1.5 | 7.54% | 13.27 |
| 2.5 | 20.47% | 4.89 |
| 3.5 | 38.76% | 2.58 |
| 4.5 | 58.16% | 1.72 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.56% | 1.01 |
| 1.5 | 92.46% | 1.08 |
| 2.5 | 79.53% | 1.26 |
| 3.5 | 61.24% | 1.63 |
| 4.5 | 41.84% | 2.39 |
Correct Score Based On Goals
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 1.44% | 69.57 |
| 0-1 | 2.44% | 40.95 |
| 0-2 | 2.07% | 48.22 |
| 0-3 | 1.17% | 85.15 |
| 1-0 | 3.66% | 27.35 |
| 1-1 | 6.21% | 16.10 |
| 1-2 | 5.28% | 18.96 |
| 1-3 | 2.99% | 33.48 |
| 2-0 | 4.65% | 21.51 |
| 2-1 | 7.90% | 12.66 |
| 2-2 | 6.71% | 14.91 |
| 2-3 | 3.80% | 26.32 |
| 3-0 | 3.94% | 25.36 |
| 3-1 | 6.70% | 14.93 |
| 3-2 | 5.69% | 17.58 |
| 3-3 | 3.22% | 31.05 |
| Any Other Home Win | 23.54% | 4.25 |
| Any Other Away Win | 6.69% | 14.95 |
| Any Other Draw | 1.04% | 96.16 |
Full-time Result Based On XG
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.30 | 1.46 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 56.44% | 19.73% | 23.73% |
| Imp Odds | 1.77 | 5.07 | 4.21 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 2.32% | 43.04 |
| 1.5 | 11.06% | 9.04 |
| 2.5 | 27.51% | 3.64 |
| 3.5 | 48.13% | 2.08 |
| 4.5 | 67.52% | 1.48 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 97.68% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 88.94% | 1.12 |
| 2.5 | 72.49% | 1.38 |
| 3.5 | 51.87% | 1.93 |
| 4.5 | 32.48% | 3.08 |
Correct Score Based On XG
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 43.04 | 2.32% |
| 0-1 | 29.51 | 3.39% |
| 0-2 | 40.46 | 2.47% |
| 0-3 | 83.22 | 1.20% |
| 1-0 | 18.68 | 5.35% |
| 1-1 | 12.81 | 7.81% |
| 1-2 | 17.56 | 5.69% |
| 1-3 | 36.13 | 2.77% |
| 2-0 | 16.22 | 6.16% |
| 2-1 | 11.12 | 8.99% |
| 2-2 | 15.25 | 6.56% |
| 2-3 | 31.37 | 3.19% |
| 3-0 | 21.13 | 4.73% |
| 3-1 | 14.48 | 6.90% |
| 3-2 | 19.86 | 5.03% |
| 3-3 | 40.85 | 2.45% |
| Any Other Home Win | 5.19 | 19.26% |
| Any Other Away Win | 22.49 | 4.45% |
| Any Other Draw | 169.48 | 0.59% |
Explore more Premier League predictions