Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Brentford is likely to win this match with a probability of 46.76%. A win for Luton has a probability of 29.99%, while a draw has a probability of 23.05%. The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win is 1-2, with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scoreline for that outcome is “Any Other Away Win” with a probability of 7.58%. The most probable Luton win is 2-1 with a probability of 7.2%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 10.37%.
This match offers an enticing opportunity for betting on both teams to score for 1.51. The projected home team goals (Luton) are 1.49 based on goal statistics, and 1.39 based on expected goals, or XG. The projected away goals (Brentford) are 1.43 based on goal statistics, and 1.79 based on expected goals or XG.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Luton | Brentford | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
1.39 | 1.79 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 29.99% | 23.05% | 46.76% |
Imp Odds | 3.33 | 4.34 | 2.14 |
Goals Over/Under Based On XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 4.18% | 23.93 |
1.5 | 17.45% | 5.73 |
2.5 | 38.51% | 2.60 |
3.5 | 60.81% | 1.64 |
4.5 | 78.50% | 1.27 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 95.82% | 1.04 |
1.5 | 82.55% | 1.21 |
2.5 | 61.49% | 1.63 |
3.5 | 39.19% | 2.55 |
4.5 | 21.50% | 4.65 |
Correct Score Based On XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 23.93 | 4.18% |
0-1 | 13.39 | 7.47% |
0-2 | 14.99 | 6.67% |
0-3 | 25.18 | 3.97% |
1-0 | 17.23 | 5.80% |
1-1 | 9.65 | 10.37% |
1-2 | 10.80 | 9.26% |
1-3 | 18.13 | 5.51% |
2-0 | 24.82 | 4.03% |
2-1 | 13.89 | 7.20% |
2-2 | 15.55 | 6.43% |
2-3 | 26.12 | 3.83% |
3-0 | 53.62 | 1.86% |
3-1 | 30.02 | 3.33% |
3-2 | 33.60 | 2.98% |
3-3 | 56.43 | 1.77% |
Any Other Home Win | 20.88 | 4.79% |
Any Other Away Win | 13.20 | 7.58% |
Any Other Draw | 328.98 | 0.30% |
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