Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Milan is likely to win this match with a probability of 39.52%. A win for Fiorentina has a probability of 36.81%, while a draw has a probability of 23.56%. The most likely scoreline for a Milan win is 1-2, with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 with a probability of 6.82% and “Any Other Away Win” with a probability of 5.93%. The most probable Fiorentina win is 0-1 with a probability of 7.98%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 2-1 with a probability of 8.19%.
This match offers an enticing opportunity for betting on both teams to score for 1.7. The projected home team goals (Fiorentina) are 2.15 based on goal statistics, and 1.55 based on expected goals, or XG. The projected away goals (Milan) are 1.96 based on goal statistics, and 1.62 based on expected goals or XG.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Fiorentina | AC Milan | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 1.55 | 1.62 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 36.81% | 23.56% | 39.52% |
| Imp Odds | 2.72 | 4.24 | 2.53 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 4.22% | 23.70 |
| 1.5 | 17.58% | 5.69 |
| 2.5 | 38.72% | 2.58 |
| 3.5 | 61.03% | 1.64 |
| 4.5 | 78.68% | 1.27 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 95.78% | 1.04 |
| 1.5 | 82.42% | 1.21 |
| 2.5 | 61.28% | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 38.97% | 2.57 |
| 4.5 | 21.32% | 4.69 |
Correct Score Based On Goals
| Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
| 0-0 | 23.70 | 4.22% |
| 0-1 | 14.67 | 6.82% |
| 0-2 | 18.16 | 5.51% |
| 0-3 | 33.72 | 2.97% |
| 1-0 | 15.29 | 6.54% |
| 1-1 | 9.46 | 10.57% |
| 1-2 | 11.72 | 8.53% |
| 1-3 | 21.76 | 4.60% |
| 2-0 | 19.73 | 5.07% |
| 2-1 | 12.21 | 8.19% |
| 2-2 | 15.12 | 6.61% |
| 2-3 | 28.08 | 3.56% |
| 3-0 | 38.19 | 2.62% |
| 3-1 | 23.64 | 4.23% |
| 3-2 | 29.27 | 3.42% |
| 3-3 | 54.35 | 1.84% |
| Any Other Home Win | 14.82 | 6.75% |
| Any Other Away Win | 16.87 | 5.93% |
| Any Other Draw | 313.64 | 0.32% |
Full-time Result Based On Goals
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Fiorentina | AC Milan | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 2.15 | 1.96 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 43.42% | 20.33% | 36.06% |
| Imp Odds | 2.30 | 4.92 | 2.77 |
Goals Over/Under Based On Goals
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 1.65% | 60.59 |
| 1.5 | 8.42% | 11.87 |
| 2.5 | 22.32% | 4.48 |
| 3.5 | 41.34% | 2.42 |
| 4.5 | 60.85% | 1.64 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 98.35% | 1.02 |
| 1.5 | 91.58% | 1.09 |
| 2.5 | 77.68% | 1.29 |
| 3.5 | 58.66% | 1.70 |
| 4.5 | 39.15% | 2.55 |
Correct Score Based On Goals
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 1.65% | 60.59 |
| 0-1 | 3.23% | 30.96 |
| 0-2 | 3.16% | 31.65 |
| 0-3 | 2.06% | 48.52 |
| 1-0 | 3.54% | 28.22 |
| 1-1 | 6.93% | 14.42 |
| 1-2 | 6.79% | 14.74 |
| 1-3 | 4.43% | 22.60 |
| 2-0 | 3.81% | 26.28 |
| 2-1 | 7.45% | 13.43 |
| 2-2 | 7.28% | 13.73 |
| 2-3 | 4.75% | 21.04 |
| 3-0 | 2.72% | 36.72 |
| 3-1 | 5.33% | 18.76 |
| 3-2 | 5.21% | 19.18 |
| 3-3 | 3.40% | 29.40 |
| Any Other Home Win | 15.36% | 6.51 |
| Any Other Away Win | 10.20% | 9.81 |
| Any Other Draw | 1.06% | 94.12 |
Find your next winning bet: Our expert predictions for upcoming Serie A matches.