Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Napoli is likely to win this match with a probability of 32.92%. A win for Atalanta has a probability of 31.67%, while a draw has a probability of 35.4%. The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win is 0-1, with a probability of 16.41%. The next most likely scoreline for that outcome is 0-2 with a probability of 6.63%. The most probable Atalanta win is 1-0 with a probability of 15.96%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 0-0 with a probability of 20.3%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on a draw, with bookmakers offering average odds of 3.5, much higher than the 2.82 calculated by our model.
Below are tables with match analyses by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full Time Result
| Home Team | Away Team | ||
| Atalanta | Napoli | ||
| Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
| 0.79 | 0.81 | ||
| Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
| %Chance | 31.67% | 35.40% | 32.92% |
| Imp Odds | 3.16 | 2.82 | 3.04 |
Goals Over/Under
| Under Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 20.30% | 4.92 |
| 1.5 | 52.68% | 1.90 |
| 2.5 | 78.48% | 1.27 |
| 3.5 | 92.20% | 1.08 |
| 4.5 | 97.66% | 1.02 |
| Over Goal Market | ||
| Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
| 0.5 | 79.70% | 1.25 |
| 1.5 | 47.32% | 2.11 |
| 2.5 | 21.52% | 4.65 |
| 3.5 | 7.80% | 12.82 |
| 4.5 | 2.34% | 42.79 |
Correct Score
| Correct Score | %Chance | Imp. Odds |
| 0-0 | 20.30% | 4.92 |
| 0-1 | 16.41% | 6.09 |
| 0-2 | 6.63% | 15.08 |
| 0-3 | 1.79% | 56.00 |
| 1-0 | 15.96% | 6.26 |
| 1-1 | 12.90% | 7.75 |
| 1-2 | 5.21% | 19.19 |
| 1-3 | 1.40% | 71.23 |
| 2-0 | 6.28% | 15.93 |
| 2-1 | 5.07% | 19.72 |
| 2-2 | 2.05% | 48.80 |
| 2-3 | 0.55% | 181.18 |
| 3-0 | 1.64% | 60.80 |
| 3-1 | 1.33% | 75.24 |
| 3-2 | 0.54% | 186.21 |
| 3-3 | 0.14% | 691.32 |
| Any Other Home Win | 0.85% | 117.75 |
| Any Other Away Win | 0.50% | 198.24 |
| Any Other Draw | 0.01% | 16,970.50 |