Based on XG, scored goals, recent performances, and player stats, our analysis suggests that Inter is likely to win this match with a probability of 52.89%. A win for Napoli has a probability of 21.57%, while a draw has a probability of 25.37%. The most likely scoreline for a Inter win is 0-1, with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 with a probability of 10.43% and 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The most probable Napoli win is 1-0 with a probability of 7.62%, while for a draw scoreline, it is 1-1 with a probability of 11.95%.
This match offers an excellent opportunity to bet on Inter’s win, with bookmakers offering average odds of 2.5, much higher than the 1.89 calculated by our model.
The following tables display match analyses categorized by match result, over/under, and correct score markets.
Full-time Result Based on XG
Home Team | Away Team | ||
Napoli | Inter | ||
Projected Home Goals | Projected Away Goals | ||
0.90 | 1.57 | ||
Home Win | Draw | Away Win | |
%Chance | 21.57% | 25.37% | 52.89% |
Imp Odds | 4.64 | 3.94 | 1.89 |
Goals Over/Under Based on XG
Under Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 8.47% | 11.80 |
1.5 | 29.39% | 3.40 |
2.5 | 55.20% | 1.81 |
3.5 | 76.44% | 1.31 |
4.5 | 89.54% | 1.12 |
Over Goal Market | ||
Goals | %Chance | Imp Odds |
0.5 | 91.53% | 1.09 |
1.5 | 70.61% | 1.42 |
2.5 | 44.80% | 2.23 |
3.5 | 23.56% | 4.24 |
4.5 | 10.46% | 9.56 |
Correct Score Based on XG
Correct Score | Imp. Odds | %Chance |
0-0 | 11.80 | 8.47% |
0-1 | 7.52 | 13.30% |
0-2 | 9.58 | 10.43% |
0-3 | 18.32 | 5.46% |
1-0 | 13.13 | 7.62% |
1-1 | 8.37 | 11.95% |
1-2 | 10.66 | 9.38% |
1-3 | 20.38 | 4.91% |
2-0 | 29.20 | 3.42% |
2-1 | 18.61 | 5.37% |
2-2 | 23.72 | 4.22% |
2-3 | 45.35 | 2.21% |
3-0 | 97.46 | 1.03% |
3-1 | 62.11 | 1.61% |
3-2 | 79.16 | 1.26% |
3-3 | 151.34 | 0.66% |
Any Other Home Win | 79.77 | 1.25% |
Any Other Away Win | 23.00 | 4.35% |
Any Other Draw | 1,621.40 | 0.06% |